The sports gambling industry is one that lacks regulation, meaning anybody can start a business, site or used car salesman persona to begin selling picks. Since there is no regulation, handicappers can correct false records and guarantees of unimaginable wealth so as to receive business.
While there are lots of legitimate and translucent handicappers in the market, in addition, there are an overwhelming amount who use bogus names, flashy cars, women of suspicious clothes and morals (we are guessing) and unachievable records to convince new or uneducated bettors to purchase their selections.
While this may sound a bit over the top, we frequently get calls asking why we do not hit 70% of our games like most of the other services out there. Our answer is that a 70% win rate isn’t achievable over the long run.
To explain this in more detail, we examined the likelihood that a sports bettor can win 70 percent of all wagers to illustrate just how unrealistic this is.
For the purposes of this article, we chose the z-ratio (also referred to as z-score) to demonstrate the number of standard deviations away from”expected” an occasion is.
Example 1: No Edge
This case presumes a handicapper who hits 50 percent of his games, meaning the handicapper does not have any advantage when choosing games. The data assumes 1,000 plays against the spread (with a vig of -110) over a calendar year, across all major US sports.
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